GOP Congressional Candidates

thinskin · Jul 28, 2020

Just watching the Barr testimony....under oath!

I am guessing Debbie Lesko is not up for re-election?

Thinskin

stumbler · Jul 28, 2020

‘Voters will know who to blame’: Poll shows nearly 7 in 10 Americans support $1 trillion state and local aid GOP refuse to provide

“Senators can no longer ignore the calls of voters, local elected officials, and economists who have repeatedly called for this relief.”

Americans across the political spectrum overwhelmingly want the federal government to provide a trillion dollars for state and local aid in the next Covid-19 relief package, according to new polling, raising the stakes even higher for congressional lawmakers as they work on reconciling House and Senate bills.

The poll, which was conducted by Public Policy Polling (PPP), consists of seven separate surveys of voters in Alaska, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Montana, and North Carolina and was commissioned by the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME).

“If senators don’t do the right thing and services are cut when our communities need them most, in November voters will know whom to blame,” AFSCME president Lee Saunders said in a statement.

States are in a perilous position as the economic crisis sparked by the pandemic threatens to destroy local budgets due to precipitous declines in tax revenue.

Center on Budget
@CenterOnBudget
States remain in dire straits due to #COVID19 & resulting economic crisis. Here are our recent pieces detailing the need for relief, the harmful budget cuts states are already beginning to make, & why the proposals from Senate Rs are severely inadequate. https://cbpp.org/blog/roundup-need-for-more-state-fiscal-relief-continues

2:58 PM · Jul 27, 2020

Economic Policy Institute president Thea Lee, in a statement, excoriated Senate Republicans for the insufficient state and local aid included in the HEALS Act unveiled Monday evening.

“The bill’s failure to provide any aid to state and local governments is a glaring weakness,” said Lee. “This will mean drastic cuts to essential services like health care, education, and public safety right when people need them the most. It will also cost 5.3 million jobs in both the public and private sectors by the end of 2021, as public sector cuts and layoffs cause major fallout in the private sector as well.”

According to AFSCME, seven in 10 voters polled by PPP approve of an increase in local and state aid for the next package “to prevent cuts to public services such as health care, education and emergency response as cash-strapped states and localities face deep budget shortfalls due to the pandemic.”

In his statement, Saunders noted the decision by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) to stall on relief efforts despite the fact that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) sent the HEROES Act to the upper chamber in May.

“Speaker Pelosi and the U.S. House passed this aid, as well as unemployment insurance, weeks ago as part of the HEROES Act,” said Saunders. “Meanwhile, Sen. McConnell decided to ‘hit pause’ and go on vacation.”

“Now, as a surge of the virus continues across the country, senators can no longer ignore the calls of voters, local elected officials, and economists who have repeatedly called for this relief,” Saunders continued. “The Senate must not leave Washington until this aid is delivered so that we can beat the pandemic and safely reopen the economy.”
Click to expand...

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/07/vo...on-state-and-local-aid-gop-refuse-to-provide/

stumbler · Jul 31, 2020

Battleground state Democrats flooded with cash from voters fed up with Trump: report

According to a report from Politico, Democratic state parties in the key battleground states Donald Trump desperately needs if he has any hope of being re-elected are receiving record amounts of donations from voters who have grown tired of the president and the GOP lawmakers who have been enabling him.

With the president’s poll numbers plummeting, Trump hinting that he would like to delay the election, the report notes that Democrats are going full steam ahead to extend their control of the Democratic-led House, reclaim the Senate and also defeat GOP lawmakers at the state level.

State parties are “harvesting record-setting cash heading into the 2020 election,” and in the “15 possible battleground states, nearly every Democratic state party group is hitting higher quarterly fundraising totals or holding more cash on hand in their federal accounts than they did at this point during the 2016 presidential campaign,” the report notes.

Tim Lim, a Democratic digital consultant, said that money isn’t being thrown around carelessly and that donors are being very selective where it will go for maximum effectiveness.

“There is a much more strategic giving regimen this cycle,” he explained. “There’s a growing recognition that the state parties have a fundamental role to play … and all those donor advisers, donor tables talk to each other about what they’re doing and how best to spend their money.”

Politico reports that the cash haul is particularly notable in states that are crucial to the president’s election chances.

“Those surges are happening in traditional swing states like Pennsylvania and Florida as well as emerging targets for Democrats like Texas and Arizona. The Arizona Democratic Party raised $4.6 million in the second quarter, a more than 300 percent increase over its haul at this point in 2016, while Texas is sitting on five times more cash than it had at this point in 2016.” the report states. “North Carolina banked more than doubled its 2016 totals, from $2.5 million to just under $6 million, and racked up its strong online fundraising numbers in June since late 2018. Wisconsin, a stand out among the states, brought in a record-breaking $10 million last quarter.”

According to former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, who formerly chaired the DNC, state parties have grown and become more effective since 2016 — a change he attributes to Donald Trump.

“For a long time, state parties were ignored during Obama’s presidency and they were incredibly weak,” he explained. “Now, they’re not [weak], which is a combination of increased competency among state parties and a donor base that’s outraged by Trump.”

Where that money will come into play may be seen on election day, with parties having more cash on hand to fund get-out-the-vote drives.

“The influx of money is giving an organizing boost to Joe Biden, Senate Democrats and other candidates heading into November 2020. Presidential candidates typically spend the final months of an election anxiously shoveling money toward state parties to fund get-out-the-vote operations and other critical infrastructure, but Democrats are running ahead of schedule this year,” Politico reports, adding, “That is largely thanks to donors across the country who are newly interested in funding the party’s grassroots operations as a way to combat President Donald Trump, as well as state party leaders who have stepped up efforts to attract top donors with the promise of getting the most bang for their buck.”

You can read more here.
Click to expand...

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/07/ba...th-cash-from-voters-fed-up-with-trump-report/

stumbler · Aug 5, 2020

The GOP is like ‘a drug gang’ that seeks ‘power for no purpose’: Longtime Republican strategist

Longtime GOP strategist Stuart Stevens, who is a veteran of multiple Republican presidential campaigns, tells Mother Jones’ David Corn that the party he has worked to elect all his life has devolved into something akin to a criminal cartel.

Stevens, who left the GOP in the wake of President Donald Trump’s rise, says the party at the moment has no rationalization for existing other than the simple maintenance of its own political power.

“No one asks a cartel, ‘What’s your ideological purpose?’” he explains. “You don’t ask OPEC, ‘What’s your ideology?’ You don’t ask a drug gang, ‘What’s your program?’ The Republicans exist for the pursuit of power for no purpose.”

In fact, Stevens goes so far as to tell Corn that he doesn’t think the Republicans ever really believed any of their rhetoric about fiscal responsibility, family values, and the promotion of democracy abroad.

“I feel like a guy who was working for Bernie Madoff,” he says.

All of this has left Stevens to conclude that there’s no way to save the Republican Party — only to “burn it to the ground and start over.”

Read the whole interview here.
Click to expand...

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/08/th...or-no-purpose-longtime-republican-strategist/

ace's n 8's · Aug 5, 2020

Stuart Stevens’ Shady Past Clients, Revealed

Stevens, whom The New Republic profiled in August, says he relishes politics “for the smell of napalm in the morning,” and, by his own admission, his political work is driven by something like a sublimated aggression—it provides “an outlet for my violent tendencies.”

The depth of Stevens’ involvement in the campaigns of Berisha and Kabila is evident from the LinkedIn profile of Joel Frushone, a former deputy at Stevens’ consulting firm, the Stevens & Schriefer Group. His resume says the firm managed almost every aspect of their election bids, from “high level multimedia campaigns” to “fundraising,” “policy development,” “in-depth opposition research,” and “political strategy, media plans and tactics”—virtually the same services Stevens provides Romney.

According to an insider from the 2005 Albanian campaign, Stevens was recommended to Berisha by a Bosnian middleman, Damir Fazlic, whom the U.S. State Department has described as “shady.” (State Department cables say Fazlic worked closely with Berisha on the campaign and received legal protection from his government. He has been followed in the Eastern European press by rumors of mafia ties.

Former Romney strategist Stuart Stevens joins Lincoln Project

ace's n 8's · Aug 5, 2020

Speaks volumes about voter enthusiasm....does it not?

stumbler · Aug 7, 2020

Republicans fear disaster in November

Republicans are privately fearing the worst possible outcome in November, one that could leave them without the White House or a majority in either chamber of Congress next year.

House Republicans face numerous, almost insurmountable obstacles: a cash shortfall against the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, 27 retiring lawmakers and a Republican National Committee that is more focused on reelecting President Trump and protecting the Senate GOP majority. They also need to pick up a net 17 seats to win back the House.

While Republicans noted the political landscape appears to change by the day, some are expressing a growing sense of doom.

“If the election were today, we would lose the House, the Senate and the White House,” said one Republican source.

Several GOP lawmakers are warning that the party faces a landslide defeat on Election Day if Trump doesn’t start landing punches on former Vice President Joe Biden, who has a strong lead in the polls both nationally and in key battleground states.

“This is the problem: [Trump] continues to allow it to be a referendum on himself; you can’t do that in a competitive race,” one GOP lawmaker said.

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), who was less pessimistic, predicted that Trump will gain momentum with more focus on Biden’s policy goals.

“The sooner the campaign is contrasted with what Biden wants to do,” the faster the race “is going to tighten,” McCarthy told The Hill in an interview.

House Minority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.) added: “There’s never been a clearer contrast in terms of a president who has successfully rebuilt the economy. And then COVID happened and now we need to rebuild the economy again — there’s nobody better to do that than Donald Trump.”

Republicans are hoping that when Trump has the opportunity to debate Biden in person, then their fortunes will change.

“President Trump has always done very well in debates,” McCarthy said. “They are underestimating him.”

But Trump’s unarticulated vision for a potential second term has made it difficult for GOP candidates to tell voters what they would be getting if they side with Republicans. And many voters don’t like what they’ve already seen, particularly when it comes to the Trump administration’s handling of the coronavirus.

Some GOP lawmakers who spoke to The Hill acknowledged that the president has failed to inject much-needed urgency into his pandemic response even as U.S. infection numbers approach 5 million, with nearly 160,000 dead.

“People are looking for reassurance ... Chaos worked great in 2016, [but] they don’t want it in 2020,” said one GOP lawmaker. “They want to know that we’re trusting science and doctors on the questions here and they want to know we’re going to get through it. There needs to be more FDR fireside chats and less Jerry Springer knockdowns.”

Trump’s rhetoric has alienated a key voting bloc that Republicans have sought to attract: suburban women. The president’s recent attack on Deborah Birx, a leading member of the White House coronavirus task force, did not help that effort.

“Conservative women want to see empathy and compassion and don’t like meanness. We are doing really poorly with married, white women,” a GOP source said. “I do not at all understand the Deborah Birx attack at all — not politically and not morally.”

Republicans who are trying to court those voters also face a funding challenge. The campaign arm for House Democrats, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, held a $33 million advantage over the National Republican Congressional Committee at the end of June, making it harder for GOP candidates to get their message out to voters.

House Republican Conference Chairwoman Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) argued Biden’s eventual VP pick could prove beneficial for down-ballot Republicans heading into November.

"The pick of vice president is going to be a moment when we are going to be able to make a very strong case, no matter who Biden picks, about the track record of that individual and what they'll bring in the future, as well as the debates," she told The Hill on Thursday, expanding on a statement from Tuesday.

“We know absolutely that President Trump can win and is going to win this election by reminding the American people of everything he's done, first of all to reverse the most dangerous policies of the Obama-Biden administration,” she added.

Some Republicans, however, see Trump pushing away another bloc of voters -- seniors -- with his persistent attacks on mail-in voting. His supporters say that could hurt him in the long run since seniors, who generally skew Republican, are at high risk of contracting COVID-19 and are more likely to vote by mail.

On Tuesday, the president reversed his stance on mail-in voting, specifically in the battleground state of Florida, where he encouraged voters to cast their ballots by mail.

Still, Republican candidates worry they’ll be weighed down on other issues where Trump is seen as out of step with the general public.

With race relations at the forefront of the national discussion following the May 25 killing of George Floyd, a Black man who died in Minneapolis police custody, Trump’s response to the subsequent protests has been an area of concern for Republicans.

Republicans groaned when Trump refused, in an interview with Axios, to acknowledge the legacy of the late civil rights icon Rep. John Lewis (D-Ga.). Instead, the president remarked on how the Georgia congressman skipped his inauguration.

“It’s all about COVID and race [relations], and that’s all just personality and managing it. [Trump’s] got to show compassion and he’ll be all right. That’s the challenge — all those are changeable,” said one GOP lawmaker.

Three sources voiced optimism that a coronavirus vaccine could be approved as early as October, which they said could be Trump’s “October surprise” and give him a boost in the polls.

Some Republican lawmakers maintain that Trump is not as far behind as the polls claim, just like in 2016; rather, they feel the headlines over the next few weeks will soon describe the Trump campaign as making a comeback.

Even those who expressed doubt about the president winning in November argue there is a hidden percentage of Trump voters who are not being reflected in the polls.

“I think it’s significant,” said one House GOP lawmaker. “You have 1.8 million Trump voters nationwide who didn’t come out in the midterms who are going to be out this cycle.”

To many, however, one need look no farther than Capitol Hill to see that the election is not looking good for the GOP.

A Republican source pointed to the fiery clash in the House late last month between Cheney, the No. 3 Republican in the House, and a group of conservative lawmakers as proof of that.

“The best evidence we are in trouble for 2020 is the jockeying for 2020 that is already going on,” the source said.
Click to expand...

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/510800-republicans-fear-disaster-in-november

stumbler · Aug 7, 2020

This is actually true. What made the NRA so powerful for decades is anyone in Congress that didn't toe their party line got attacked by the NRA and promoted their opponent, In fact the two real purposes of the NRA was to be a heat shield for gun makers and push the Conservative agenda. And they had so much money they could strike terror in the hearts of politicians. And that was even true in 2016 where the NRA spent $54 million for Trump and Republicans even though a lot if not most of that money actually came from Russia. But now the NRA has been so bankrupt and corrupt they have had to steal money from their "foundation" to even get going and are too broke to try to throw this election to Trump and the Republicans. And that is going to really hurt them with the amount of money the Democrats are raking in.

How the NRA’s new legal woes will cripple GOP candidates in November

It was announced this week that the New York attorney general is filing a suit against the National Rifle Association *over fraud and saying that they must close down. It’s a case that was part of an 18-month investigation that revealed the gun lobbying group is “fraught with fraud and abuse.” Now, the NRA is faced with trying to convince the public that they’re still relevant.

Bloomberg reported Friday that the lavish spending on clothing for the group’s CEO, internal disputes, and questions about foreign donations are all crashing together just in time for the 2020 election. After spending millions to elect President Donald Trump, the NRA now struggles with its credibility.

“The timing of the lawsuits is inauspicious,” the report said. “With the presidential and congressional elections scheduled for November, the non-profit faces a variety of challenges to raise money and cover mounting legal expenses. And its longstanding leadership is being attacked by New York State.”

Republicans who accept money from the group may face questions about the corruption and illegal behavior at a time the GOP is struggling to hold onto whatever seats it has left.

“It will diminish its direct influence because they’re going to have to be in defense mode,” said Daniel Kurtz, an attorney representing non-profit groups.

Bloomberg explained that GOP politicians, from Trump all the way down the ballot, have a lot to lose this election. “In past elections, the Republican party has benefited as the NRA energized its base, got people to the polls, and funded its campaigns,” said the report.

The group has pivoted from defending the GOP to defending itself amid legal battles, telling supporters that they are under attack by New York. They’ve already attempted to counter-sue Attorney General Letitia James in federal court, saying that she’s attempting to violate their First Amendment rights. However, the First Amendment doesn’t cover the right to commit fraud, so it’s unclear how successful the counter-suit will be.

“The NRA also accused James in the lawsuit of colluding with Everytown for Gun Safety,” the report said. “Carolyn Meadows, the NRA’s president, called James’s suit a baseless, premeditated attack on the Second Amendment that was timed to have maximum impact during the election cycle.”

“You could have set your watch by it: the investigation was going to reach its crescendo as we move into the 2020 election cycle,” she said. “It’s a transparent attempt to score political points and attack the leading voice in opposition to the leftist agenda.”

The Center for Responsive Politics says the NRA has only spent a little over $900,000 for the election and has about $3.6 million reserved in advertising. It’s a far cry from the $419 million the group spent in 2016.

Read the full report at Bloomberg News.
Click to expand...

*New York AG Letitia James has been appearing on multiple cable news shows last night and today patiently explaining her suit has nothing to do with guns or the NRA per se. The suit is simply addressing the outrageous fraud and corruption of the leadership of the NRA and the only solution is to dissolve the organization.

shootersa · Aug 7, 2020

And on another note we see that yet another gun manufacturer has been bought up by a Soros backed organization.

stumbler · Aug 9, 2020

I suspect there are a lot more than just one Republican Senator that is opposed to Trump's executive orders. Many of them are probably sitting there complaining do we really want to give a President Joe Biden, or any president for that matter, that kind of power?

McConnell in a pickle after GOP senator blasts Trump’s executive orders as ‘unconstitutional slop’

President Donald Trump on Saturday signed four executive orders that may provide economic relief for some Americans as Congress remains at an impasse.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) backed Trump’s moves, despite their dubious legal grounding.

“Struggling Americans need action now. Since Democrats have sabotaged backroom talks with absurd demands that would not help working people, I support President Trump *exploring his options to get unemployment benefits and other relief to the people who need them the most,” McConnell said in a statement.

However, McConnell’s caucus is not united on the subject.

A member of both the Senate Judiciary and Finance Committees, Sen. Ben Sasse (R-NE), put out a statement blasting the move.

“The pen-and-phone theory of executive lawmaking is unconstitutional slop,” Sasse charged.

“President Obama did not have the power to unilaterally rewrite immigration law with DACA, and President Trump does not have the power to unilaterally rewrite the payroll tax law. Under the Constitution, that power belongs to the American people acting through their members of Congress,” he continued.
Click to expand...

*When it comes to Moscow Mitch you have to really study each word he uses. Such as "exploring." If you listened to Trump yesterday he was saying this was a done deal and he had to power to do it. But that is not what Moscow Mitch is saying. He is saying Trump is just looking into trying to do things but hasn't really done anything yet. Which is basically the same thing House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is saying this morning on every cable news network including Fox News.

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/08/mc...ps-executive-orders-as-unconstitutional-slop/

stumbler · Aug 14, 2020

If average Americans are not hurting and in need of help right now then Trump and Republican Senators should have no problem, They can just all go golfing together.

Fox News poll spells bad news for Republicans as McConnell goes on vacation without a stimulus deal

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) adjourned the Senate on Thursday for an August recess.

Despite the lack of a coronavirus stimulus deal, the Senate is not scheduled to meet for a regular session until September 8th — which is 26 days from now.

But a new Fox News poll demonstrates how much Americans are seeking additional help from the government during the economic catastrophe.

“The poll asks voters to choose one of two messages to send to the federal government right now — ‘lend me a hand’ or ‘leave me alone.’ A majority of 57 percent says they would ask Washington to ‘lend me a hand.’ Last year, just 34 percent asked for a hand-up (February 2019). The previous high was 44 percent in 2011, after the financial crisis,” Fox News reported.

“At the same time, the number saying they would tell the government to ‘leave me alone’ dropped 19 points, from 55 percent to 36 percent,” Fox noted.

The dramatic shift in the role of government was not the only bad news for Republicans in the Fox News poll. Here’s what people were noting about the results:

Manu Raju
@mkraju
As Trump attacks Biden’s call to mandate masks, Fox News poll finds an overwhelming majority - 74% - favor “requiring everyone in the United States to wear a face mask when they are outside of their home,” versus 21% opposed. https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2020/08/Fox_August-9-12-2020_Complete_National_Topline_August-13-Release.pdf
5:23 PM · Aug 13, 2020

Ryan Struyk
@ryanstruyk
11% of American voters say they are "very satisfied with the way things are going in the country today" via new Fox News poll.
4:33 PM · Aug 13, 2020
Andreas
@MrSurf1991
Fox News poll – Reaction to Coronavirus

5:19 PM · Aug 13, 2020

Edgar Reed
@ReedForecasts
From today's Fox News poll. Trump continues to have really high "Strongly Unfavorable" numbers (upper 40s!) whereas Biden a new positive favorability.

4:55 PM · Aug 13, 2020
Click to expand...

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/08/fo...ell-goes-on-vacation-without-a-stimulus-deal/

latecomer91364 · Aug 14, 2020

Okay, so just what GOP congressional candidate is that bullshit spew about?

Try to stay on subject, pumpkin.

Sanity_is_Relative · Aug 16, 2020

shootersa · Aug 16, 2020

Standard despicable tactic.
Do something, or make something impossible to do, or unpalatable to do or not do and then blame it on deplorables.

stumbler · Aug 17, 2020

Cook shifts South Carolina Senate race toward Lindsey Graham opponent

The Cook Political Report on Monday shifted its outlook for the South Carolina Senate race toward Democrat Jaime Harrison, bringing Sen. Lindsey Graham’s (R-S.C.) reelection bid into more competitive territory.

The nonpartisan election handicapper moved the race from its "likely" Republican column into the "lean" Republican column. That means that Graham still has the advantage, but his seat has come into play for Democrats.

A handful of factors contributed to the rating change. Harrison has nearly matched Graham dollar for dollar in fundraising this cycle, raking in $29 million to the GOP incumbent’s $30.9 million.

At the same time, the national political climate has shifted in a way that appears favorable to Harrison, a former South Carolina Democratic Party chairman and the first African American to serve in that role.

“Racial injustice protests that swept the nation in early June also give Harrison, who is Black, further motivation for turning out African-American voters in the state,” Jessica Taylor, the Senate and governor’s editor for The Cook Political Report, wrote in an analysis of the South Carolina race.

“Were Harrison to upset Graham, South Carolina — the first state to secede from the Union in 1860 — would become the first state in history to have two Black senators serving at the same time, joining Republican Sen. Tim Scott.”

Recent polling also suggests a tightening race between Graham and Harrison. A Quinnipiac University poll released earlier this month showed the two candidates knotted at 44 percent, and other surveys from Democratic-leaning firms found Harrison trailing Graham by narrow margins.

Graham will still be tough for Democrats to ouster. He won his last reelection bid in 2014 by nearly 16 points, and President Trump carried the state in 2016 by more than 14 points.

But FiveThirtyEight’s polling average of the presidential race in South Carolina shows Trump’s lead over presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden narrowing to about 6.5 points. Biden already does well with Black voters, who make up more than half of the state’s Democratic electorate, and Democrats hope that his choice of Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) as his running mate will further help boost turnout among Black voters, especially in the South.
Click to expand...

https://thehill.com/homenews/campai...outh-carolina-senate-race-from-likely-to-lean

stumbler · Sep 3, 2020

New polls show Trump and GOP senators losing in 3 key states the president won in 2016

Sen. Martha McSally and Donald Trump (Facebook)

Sen. Martha McSally, R-Ariz., trails retired astronaut Mark Kelly by 17 points in a new Fox News poll that had plenty of bad news for Republicans up for re-election in November.

The poll shows Kelly leading McSally 56-39 among likely voters after another recent poll showed the incumbent Republican losing by 19 points.

McSally, who lost her 2018 Senate bid to Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, D-Ariz. before being appointed to the seat previously held by the late Sen. John McCain, is by far the most vulnerable Republican up for election this fall. Kelly, the husband of former Rep. Gabby Giffords, D-Ariz., has consistently led in the polls and in fundraising. McSally’s deficit has grown after she urged supporters to give up meals to donate to her campaign.

The Fox News poll found that even many likely Trump voters do not support her campaign, with 89% of the president’s supporters backing McSally while 96% of Joe Biden supporters back Kelly. About 14% of Republicans said they plan to vote for Kelly, while only 3% of Democrats support McSally.

Trump’s collapse in Arizona has made things even more difficult for the senator. McSally has fully embraced the president’s agenda in her campaign but the Fox News poll found that Trump trails Biden, 49% to 40%, among likely voters in the state. Trump trails by 46 points among Hispanic voters, 16 points among women, and 12 points among seniors, who had been a core part of the president’s base. Although there are hypothetical pathways for Trump to win the Electoral College while losing Arizona, in practical terms it would likely be a sign of a Biden landslide.

The poll shows that the formerly red state continues to shift away from Republicans. Trump beat former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by just under four points in Arizona in 2016 but Mitt Romney carried the state by 11 points in 2012. Sinema became the first Arizona Democrat elected to the Senate in 30 years in 2018. Even Republicans are now worried that Trump and McSally are so unpopular it may cost them the state legislature for the first time in 50 years.

The Fox News poll showed that Arizona voters overwhelmingly trust Biden to handle the coronavirus pandemic more than Trump, and prefer Biden on criminal justice and policing issues as well, a trend that is also evident in other states.

Biden leads Trump 50% to 46% in North Carolina, according to the survey, where voters prefer the Democrat to handle the coronavirus, by a nine-point margin. The poll also found Democrat Cal Cunningham leading incumbent Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., 48% to 42%, among likely voters. Trump carried North Carolina by less than four points in 2016.

Biden also leads Trump by 50% to 42% in Wisconsin, one of the key states that tipped the election to Trump in 2016. Voters in the Badger State prefer Biden to handle the pandemic by a whopping 17 points. Trump carried the state by just 23,000 votes in 2016, winning about 47% of the vote. The Fox poll found that his approval rating in the state is down to 45% while 54% of the state disapproves of his job performance.

Trump, despite frequently echoing the network’s talking points and calling into its talk shows for softball interviews, accused Fox News of producing “suppression polls” to hurt his campaign. Trump claimed the Fox polls are “fake news.”

“I believe we are leading BIG!” he added.

Despite Trump’s attempts to spin the data, other new polls suggest that the president failed to get the post-convention bump he hoped for. A recent Selzer & Co. poll found Biden leading by eight points while Quinnipiac showed him leading by 10, CNN/SSRS showed him leading by eight, and YouGov showed him leading by 11.

Biden did get one piece of bad news after the conventions, a Monmouth poll that showed the two candidates effectively tied in Pennsylvania after a July poll that showed Biden leading by 7-10 points.

FiveThirtyEight election forecaster Nate Silver pointed out that Biden “is still more likely than Trump to win Pennsylvania,” as well as Arizona and Wisconsin. Silver’s Electoral College projection gives Biden about a 7-in-10 chance to win the election, he wrote, “almost exactly the same position he was in before the conventions.”
Click to expand...

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/09/ne...ng-in-3-key-states-the-president-won-in-2016/

stumbler · Sep 18, 2020

JUST IN: FiveThirtyEight Now Forecasts Democrats Will Win Control of Senate

Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight has forecasted that the Democratic Party will take control of the Senate this year.

As of Friday, FiveThirtyEight predicts Democrats “are slightly favored to win the Senate.”

“In 42 in 100 scenarios, Republicans win control,” the site declared, while in “58 in 100 scenarios, Democrats win control.”

“Democrats have an 80% chance of holding between 47 and 54 seats,” they added.

In August, FiveThirtyEight gave 2020 Democratic presidential nominee and former Vice President Joe Biden a 71 percent chance of beating President Donald Trump.

The site noted, however, that the forecast still “shows Trump with a meaningful chance of winning because there’s still plenty of time for the race to tighten.”

Silver made similar comments in June, telling ABC, “For the time being, no I don’t buy that we’re going to have the same map as we did in 2016… Instead, Trump is a fighting a two-front war with problems in the midwest on one hand and Arizona and Florida on the other hand.”

“I want to be really clear, Trump can absolutely win re-election,” he continued. “But he definitely has his work cut out for him.”
Click to expand...

https://www.mediaite.com/election-2...recasts-democrats-will-win-control-of-senate/

shootersa · Sep 18, 2020

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

stumbler · Sep 18, 2020

shootersa said: ↑

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
Click to expand...

And yet you sure love to quote FiveThirtyEight when it suits your purposes.

shootersa said: ↑

The myth being sold by the Democrats is that Trump supporters are poorly educated red necks upset with the Politically correct movement.
The reality is more interesting, and signals a problem for Hilary;
The average income of Trump supporters is is about $72,000, based on estimates derived from exit polls and Census Bureau data. Well above the national median household income of about $56,000. It’s also higher than the median income for Hillary Clinton supporters, which is around $61,000. Wealthier Americans are more likely to turn out to vote. Also, about 44 percent of Trump supporters have college degrees, according to exit polls, compared to 29% of Clinton voters. Educated voters are more likely to vote.
In classic Democratic fashion, the Democrats combat this information with a disinformation campaign designed to shame and demonize the opposition support, rather than ask "why" and actually do something about it. Shooter predicts this will come back and bite the Democrats in the ass.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/
Click to expand...

shootersa said: ↑

https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-poll-numbers-approval-rating-up-2018-6

President Donald Trump has faced intense, sustained backlash to his immigration policies even after a partial reversal of course.
But even as some officials in the Trump administration are shouted out of restaurants and called fascists to their face, Trump's polling numbers have been steady — even rising — over the past several weeks.

Both a Gallup poll and the RealClearPolitics average of polls put Trump around a 45% approval rating, with that number rising steadily throughout June. That's just 1 point lower than President Barack Obama polled at this point in his presidency.

Over the same period, Trump's border practices drove at least one mainstream news anchor to tears and sparked round-the-clock coverage of family separations. Other than Trump's policy of separating migrant families at the border, which he reversed amid the scrutiny, analysts say his overall immigration policy looks a lot like Obama's.

FiveThirtyEight's polling aggregator tracks a steady rise for Trump during June, putting him at 42.5% approval on the 521st day of his presidency.
Click to expand...

shootersa said: ↑

Um, where is the part about Trump closing travel from China on January 31?
And, you know, the Biden/despicable attacks that he was racist and overreacting and what not?

Didn't fit the narrative?
Copy that.

And your kneeling at the feet of Gabriel Sherman? The guy with all the sources in the Whitehouse?
A quick Google search shows he's got about the same credibility you do.

https://thefederalist.com/2017/02/06/16-fake-news-stories-reporters-have-run-since-trump-won/

On November 22, Gabriel Sherman posted a bombshell report at New York Magazine claiming that “a group of prominent computer scientists and election lawyers” were demanding a recount in three separate states because of “persuasive evidence that [the election] results in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania may have been manipulated or hacked.”
It wasn’t until the next day, November 23, that someone threw a little water on the fire. At FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver explained that it was “demographics, not hacking” that explained the curious voting numbers. “Anyone making allegations of a possible massive electoral hack should provide proof,” he wrote, “and we can’t find any.” Additionally, Silver pointed out that the New York Magazine article had misrepresented the argument of one of the computer scientists in question.

https://twitchy.com/gregp-3534/2017..._xIrprO_cP_doYxhN_6Rr2pZJzoRG753LQkKmSJn92pGf
On last night’s “All In With Chris Hayes,” journalist Gabriel Sherman told of a conversation he had with a “prominent Republican” who said that “they imagine” different scenarios of what Chief of Staff John Kelly and Defense Secretary Jim Mattis might do if Trump decided to use nukes on another country.

Focus on “imagine,” as in they’re making it up.

https://twitter.com/PressSec/status/1237107634039410688?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1237107634039410688&ref_url=https://www.independentsentinel.com/video-exposes-the-extent-of-the-fake-news-aimed-at-the-president/
Kayleigh McEnany
✔@PressSec
This is 100% fake news. @gabrielsherman did not reach out to me. False & sensational writing on this topic is irresponsible. POTUS has spent plenty of time w the press pool - simply ask ur colleagues. Nothing about your little college essay is funny or true & I want a retraction. https://twitter.com/gabrielsherman/status/1237069021050265602 …
Gabriel Sherman
@gabrielsherman
Trump is total meltdown. He told aides he thinks journalists want to get coronavirus on purpose to spread it to him on Air Force One. My latest:https://www.vanityfair.com/news/202...chief-struggles-to-control-the-covid-19-story …

15.9K
2:06 PM - Mar 9, 2020
Click to expand...

shootersa · Sep 22, 2020

Huh.
Apparently, if it isn't MSNBC or CNN or wrong story rear admiral motherfucker doesn't think there's any credibility.

Log in or Sign up

thinskin Porn Star Banned!

stumbler Porn Star

stumbler Porn Star

stumbler Porn Star

ace's n 8's Porn Star

ace's n 8's Porn Star

stumbler Porn Star

stumbler Porn Star

shootersa Frisky Feline

stumbler Porn Star

stumbler Porn Star

latecomer91364 Easily Distracte

Sanity_is_Relative Porn Star

shootersa Frisky Feline

stumbler Porn Star

stumbler Porn Star

stumbler Porn Star

shootersa Frisky Feline

stumbler Porn Star

shootersa Frisky Feline

GOP Congressional Candidates

Log in or Sign up

thinskin Porn Star Banned!

stumbler Porn Star

stumbler Porn Star

stumbler Porn Star

ace's n 8's Porn Star

ace's n 8's Porn Star

stumbler Porn Star

stumbler Porn Star

shootersa Frisky Feline

stumbler Porn Star

stumbler Porn Star

latecomer91364 Easily Distracte

Sanity_is_Relative Porn Star

shootersa Frisky Feline

stumbler Porn Star

stumbler Porn Star

stumbler Porn Star

shootersa Frisky Feline

stumbler Porn Star

shootersa Frisky Feline

Useful Searches